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Analysis of Central Bank Design Sce-Narios Report No 123 Analysis of Central Bank Design Scenarios

By International Development Agency

Description
Excerpt: The purpose of this report is to analyze two specific pension reform scenarios suggested by the Central Bank, as modified based on discussions with me. This report is part of a series of reports prepared for the govern-ment of Armenia in support of its ef ...

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Book Id: WPLBN0000662446
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 312,610 KB.
Reproduction Date: 2005
Full Text

Title: Analysis of Central Bank Design Sce-Narios Report No 123 Analysis of Central Bank Design Scenarios  
Author: International Development Agency
Volume:
Language: English
Subject: United Nations., United Nations. Centre for Economic and Social Information, AID project impact evaluation report
Collection: United Nations Library International Aid and Funding Collection
Subcollection:
Historic
Publication Date:
Publisher: United Nations Library International Aid and Funding
 
 
Table of Contents
CONTENTS CONTENTS.....................................................................................................................................................................2 1. INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................................3 2. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE CENTRAL BANK SCENARIOS..............................................................4 2.1. SCENARIO 1: GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MANDATORY ACCUMULATION, KEEP SOLIDARITY...........................4 2.2. SCENARIO 2: FULL TRANSITION TO MANDATORY ACCUMULATION SYSTEM AND FROM SOLIDARITY PENSIONS TO SOLIDARITY SOCIAL WELFARE PAID FROM THE GENERAL BUDGET.............................................................................6 3. PROJECTED BENEFITS AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS.....................................................................................9 3.1. CURRENT PENSION SYSTEM.............................................................................................................................9 3.2. SCENARIO 1...................................................................................................................................................10 3.3. SCENARIO 2...................................................................................................................................................14 4. NEXT STEPS.............................................................................................................................................................17 APPENDIX 1. PROST METHOD AND ASSUMPTIONS.........................................................................................19 POPULATION PROJECTIONS..........................................................................................................................................19 LABOR FORCE, NUMBER EMPLOYED AND NUMBER CONTRIBUTING............................................................................19 REVENUE CALCULATION.............................................................................................................................................20 NUMBER OF PENSIONERS.............................................................................................................................................20 EXPENDITURES............................................................................................................................................................20 APPENDIX 2. CALCULATION OF CONTRIBUTION RATES AND REPLACEMENT RATIOS USED IN THE PROST MODEL FOR NEW PENSIONERS IN THE SOLIDARITY SYSTEM UNDER SCENARIOS 1 AND 2.............................................................................................................................................................................22 SCENARIO 1: CALCULATING CONTRIBUTION RATES TO THE SOLIDARITY SYSTEM.........................................................22 SCENARIO 1: CALCULATING REPLACEMENT RATIOS IN THE SOLIDARITY SYSTEM.........................................................22 SCENARIO 2: CALCULATING CONTRIBUTION RATES TO THE SOLIDARITY SYSTEM.........................................................23 SCENARIO 2: CALCULATING REPLACEMENT RATIOS IN THE SOLIDARITY SYSTEM.........................................................23

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